Monday, September 17, 2012

Is Matt Brown the best QB in the MVFC?

In case you missed it this past weekend, Illinois State found itself in an absolute gem of a double-overtime game versus Eastern Illinois of the Ohio Valley Conference as the two teams racked up a combined 1,042 yards of offense and 105 points. Of those numbers, 473 yards and five scores came from the arm of senior ISU quarterback Matt Brown, who is making his case this season as the top passer in a Valley stocked with top-tier QBs.

Image source: www.washingtonpost.com
In addition to his video-game numbers from this past weekend, Brown has totaled 820 yards and nine touchdowns on 69% completion through three games this season, including a very steady 155 yards, one score and one of his two interceptions in the Redbirds' big win over FBS opponent Eastern Michigan.

Coming into the season, there was a sort of unspoken "old guard" of returning quarterbacks that would be contending as the top passers in what is a very run-oriented league. In no particular order, that list was:
  • Kurt Hess, Jr., Youngstown State, who helped propel the Penguins to produce the most offense in the Valley last season;
  • Brock Jensen, Jr., North Dakota State, the ultra-efficient game manager who guided the Bison to a Valley crown and the 2011 FCS national championship;
  • Austin Sumner, So., South Dakota State, the freshman who gave Jackrabbit fans a reason to head to Coughlin Alumni Stadium with his ludicrous numbers through the air;
  • Matt Brown, whom you should know at this point.
 That list is staying more or less consistent, though one addition in particular, Northern Iowa's freshman Sawyer Kollmorgen, has emerged as the go-to candidate for MVFC Freshman of the Year and has kept the Panthers competitive in the hellish schedule that includes close losses to Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Iowa.

The production of Sumner in particular has taken a step back with the eruption of sophomore running back Zach Zenner, who leads the conference in rushing through the first three games of the season with an average of 222 yards per game on the ground (and had the Jacks' only two scores over UC-Davis this past weekend). Not to take any credit from Zenner, but Sumner has not only thrown at just over 50% completion, but has six interceptions to just three touchdowns so far in 2012. To write him off would be simply irresponsible, but with a suddenly-potent rushing game it's hard to see the SDSU coaching staff going back to that Texas Tech offense and have Sumner throw the ball sixty times per game.

 Hess, similarly, hasn't put up the kind of numbers he was notching at this point in the season last year, throwing just four touchdowns in three games (certainly trending far below his mark of 26 in 11 games last year) and has a game-high of just 186 versus Albany this past weekend. It's fair to argue that the Valley holds in store some sterner defenses, but with the added dimension of knowing the upcoming opponents better than one-shot out-of-conference foes like Valparaiso and Pittsburgh, it's hard to gauge whether he'll return to his 2011 form. In any event, the Penguins are a Top-5 team nationally, are 3-0, and are very real contenders for a deep playoff run if they can keep their level of play up through the MVFC season, so you won't hear too many complaints from the Penguin faithful anyway.

Jensen has more or less kept pace with his progress from last season, keeping his razor-sharp passing on the money (64% completion in two games) and his role as a game-manager at the forefront. Jensen faces the unpleasant reality of NDSU's offensive scheme, which is predicted on running the football, and will very rarely attempt anything more than 25-30 passes per game, making his stats a bit stunted by design but nonetheless keeping his numbers in the prime of efficiency as he rarely throws interceptions.  With a health pair of backs leading the way on the ground for the Bison, don't look for Jensen to challenge for the league's end-of-season offensive MVP title.

The wild card in this whole discussion is the aforementioned Kollmorgen, who has a stunning 739 yards, six scores and a single interception to his credit as a passer through the Panthers' three games this season. The real magic of Kollmorgen comes from his status as a redshirt freshman taking over for the sensational Tirrell Rennie, and he delivered some sensation of his own when he nearly led the Panthers to a fourth-quarter upset of the then 12th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers. Kollmorgen threw for 265 yards and a flawless three touchdowns in that game, two of which came in the fourth quarter in a furious comeback bid. While his talent isn't any surprise, or at least shouldn't be to anyone who knows how UNI Head Coach Mark Fairley puts his teams together, his numbers do raise some eyebrows. With a pair of talented backs in David Anderson and Carlos Anderson, Northern Iowa strikes one as a run-first team trying to get back to a more pro-style offense that they were forced to abandon with the ludicrous athleticism Rennie brought to the table the past two years. With such a transitory offense and a good stable of running backs, the Panthers seem more suited to a grind-it-out game yet are throwing the ball 28 times per game. I'm curious to see if the Panthers adopt a more conservative game when they don't have to play from behind against FBS opponents, and the next few games against Youngstown State and North Dakota State should give us a much clearer picture of where UNI wants to go with their offense. A masochistic voice in my head can't wait to see how Kollmorgen fares against NDSU's secondary, which is arguably the best and deepest in the country.

What all this boils down to is that Brown has both the stats and the accomplishments, bringing ISU from a pretender to a contender with a 7-win rap sheet last year, to claim his title as the best passer in the league through non-conference season so far. Obviously with just three games in the books it's tough to set any anticipations in stone, but with conference season right around the corner I'm awfully excited to see what he and the rest of the Valley QBs bring to the table.

4 comments:

  1. I think that Jensen's accountability trumps Matt Brown's numbers. Still, these are very good quarterbacks. Sumner looks like he might be in a sophomore slump.

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  2. Great point on Jensen's accountability - he simply doesn't put the team into bad spots, which is priority #1 for any quarterback. It does raise the question of what NDSU would do if they found themselves in the kind of position Illinois State was in having to outscore the opponent. Granted, NDSU's defense giving up 51 points is an awfully unlikely prospect, but I'd be interested to see what happened when NDSU started to rely on Jensen's arm more so than the running game. Love Jensen and what he brings to NDSU, but I'd take Brown head-to-head if we were building an offense from scratch.

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  3. Can't really pass judgement on the other guys, though Hess scares the crap out of me after what he did to the Birds last year, but Matt Brown has been filthy good this season. He singlehandidly willed that team to win on Saturday. He accounted for 7 TDs and led the comeback charge when the worn out defense needed him to in the 2nd. Very disappointed the league chose Bell as player of the week. Brown should have at least shared the honor.

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  4. Sumner doesn't have Dale Moss, an NFL=level receiver, as a target this season. That alone, plus coming in semi-injured in his first game, have dented his statistics. SDSU needs his arm to keep the rushing game from facing seven in abox, even though Renner and his line (!) are good enough to hurt that kind of defense.

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