Missouri Valley Playoff Projections: Week 10

Matt Brown and the Redbirds have put themselves in a
very good spot in terms of playoff selection.
(Photo: GoRedbirds)

The playoff picture in the Missouri Valley got a little more clear over the weekend. However, it looks as if only three MVFC teams have legit shots at the playoffs this year. North Dakota State and Illinois State have already notched 8 D-I wins which is considered a lock coming from a conference like the Missouri Valley. South Dakota State currently sits at 7-2 which is a great spot for them as they have South Dakota coming to Brookings for the last game of the season. However, they must win one game before they get too comfortable. North Dakota State and South Dakota State are the only teams that control their own destiny for the Missouri Valley crown; if they win out, they'll get the auto-bid and most likely a seed, although it is argued that the Bison will receive a seed regardless.

The situation becomes more tricky for Illinois State to win the auto-bid. Essentially, South Dakota State must beat North Dakota State then lose to South Dakota to end 8-3. North Dakota State will need to lose to both South Dakota State and Illinois State to end 8-3. Illinois State will need to beat North Dakota State and they would end 9-2. I would assume Illinois State would grab the auto-bid and North Dakota State and South Dakota State would enter the playoffs, albeit, seedless.

There are, however, two teams who could end up with 7 D-I wins which would place them eligible for playoff selection. However, ALOT would have to happen across all conferences in the FCS landscape for a 7-win team to be selected. Both Youngstown State and Indiana State have opportunities to end with 7 wins. In this extreme scenario where a 7-win team from the Missouri Valley would be selected it would be tough to determine which team has the better resume. On one hand, the early season success of Youngstown State is nothing to scoff at, however, Indiana State proved they can compete with the best as they knocked off top-ranked North Dakota State in Fargo. So, what is more impressive? A win against North Dakota State or a win against Pittsburgh? In my opinion, the Indiana State win against North Dakota State was far more impressive. The relative success of Pittsburgh in the middle of the season (as depicted in their game against #4 BCS Notre Dame) has shown us that this is not the same Pittsburgh team that played against Youngstown State. It is a very valid argument when a new head coach comes in, the first few games can be rocky, as was the case in Pittsburgh. I'm not trying to downplay the significance of the win, I'm just saying there is something to think about there. North Dakota State, on the other hand, has had continued success and is a strong program with an amazing coaching staff. For Indiana State to come into Fargo and beat a #1 ranked team, with confidence, is a far larger statement than beating an FBS team right out of the gate.

So that is a quick review of where the anticipated eligible Missouri Valley teams stand. However, as we all know determining playoff teams requires a comprehension of the entire FCS field and how each conference is doing. For example, this year it will be very unlikely that a 7-win team will be selected into the playoffs because of the amount of 8+ win programs. Here is a list of teams who are anticipated to have 8+ wins at the end of the regular season:

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (8-1)
Eastern Washington (7-2)
Montana State (8-1)
Cal Poly (7-2)

Big South
Stony Brook (9-1)

CAA
New Hampshire (8-2)
Old Dominion (8-1)
James Madison (7-2) (If they beat 'Nova)
Richmond (6-3)
Villanova (6-3) (If they beat JMU)

MEAC
Bethune-Cookman (7-2)

MVFC
North Dakota State (8-1)
South Dakota State (7-2)
Illinois State (8-2)

NEC
Wagner (6-3)
Albany (7-2)

Ohio Valley
Tennessee-Martin (7-2)
Tennessee State (8-2)
Eastern Kentucky (7-3)

Patriot League
Lehigh (9-0)
Colgate (6-3)

SoCon
Georgia Southern (7-2)
Wofford (7-2)
Appalachian State (7-3)

Southland
Central Arkansas (8-2)
Sam Houston State (7-2)

Obviously, there is a lot going on in the FCS the next couple weeks and talk up until now is purely speculation and guesswork.