Blog Resurrection, Preseason Rankings, Player Watch lists, and more!

It's been a quiet summer for us here at the MVFF, but with kickoff of the 2013 season just a scant month ahead it's high time to get talking about what will likely shape up to be, once again, the most daunting conference in the Football Championship Subdivision. With North Dakota State returning as the back-to-back champion of both the nation and conference the table looks set to have the Bison continue their dynastic run through the slate, but make no mistake that plenty of challenges await as some very good teams appear to be shaping up here in the Midwest. The league boasts (in my opinion) six or seven teams that have a reasonable shot at being in the top half of the conference, and as all Valley fans will attest, any of the Valley members could steal a couple of games and surprise some folks. With that said, let's get right to my preseason rankings for the Valley - the numbers in parentheses indicate a team's 2012 record followed by their record in conference play.

Craig Bohl and the Bison are 37-7 over the past three seasons.
Photo credit: inforum.com

1. North Dakota State (14-1, 7-1) - No surprise here, as the Bison return 19 starters from a team that has won ten playoff games and two national championships in the last three years. Senior quarterback Brock Jensen returns behind center to continue as the rock on offense, and a few tools at wide receiver will only benefit a passing game that has largely been the only weakness of this squad for the past few years. This year's Bison defense should again cement itself as one of the top units in the country, and a number of players on that side of the ball have pro prospects to live up to. The Bison have a good early litmus test at Kansas State on August 31st, and a victory there would be an early herald of the continuing dominance the Bison are showing the FCS.

Kollmorgen returns as the reigning MVFC Newcomer of the Year
Photo credit: Getty Images

2. Northern Iowa (5-6, 4-4) - A rare losing season from Cedar Falls will be quickly rectified, in my opinion, as sophomore QB Sawyer Kollmorgen should continue to improve from what was a remarkable freshman campaign that nearly resulted in an early upset of ranked Wisconsin last season. The Panthers also return running back David Johnson, who's found himself on the 2013 Walter Payton watch list and should factor in as a potent weapon behind Kollmorgen. Tab October 5th as a slobberknocker, as the Panthers travel to Fargo to face the Bison in what should be the usual slugfest we expect between those two teams. Otherwise, the Panthers face some adversity in games at South Dakota State and Illinois State; can they endure?

Zach Zenner broke out last season with a 99-yard touchdown
run versus the Kansas Jayhawks. Photo credit: ESPN 99.1

3. South Dakota State (9-4, 6-2) - The Jacks are the sexy pick at second in the league, and have a very favorable home league schedule as NDSU, UNI, and both ISU's come to Brookings. The Jacks also return most key pieces from their playoff-earning campaign from last season. Those factors aside, the question for the Jacks is whether or not junior quarterback Austin Sumner can take the pressure off of last year's 2000-yard rusher Zach Zenner at running back. Zenner is on a nearly endless list of award watch lists for 2013, and rightfully so, but if Sumner can't improve on last year's 15-14 TD:INT ratio, then it will be all teams need to do to load the box and force the diminutive Zenner to pound out tough yards. The Jacks will be a good team, but it's up to Sumner to make them a great team in 2013.

Barnett's claim to fame is Iowa State's 2011 stunning upset of
then-second-ranked Oklahoma State. Credit: SI.com

4. Illinois State (9-4, 5-3) - The Redbirds don't go higher by virtue of losing do-everything quarterback Matt Brown last season, and although they are bringing in a few promising candidates to replace the position (including Iowa State transfer Jared Barnett, whom my partner-in-crime detailed in the blog post prior to this one), they still face a number of questions on offense that preclude any discussion of placing them higher than about here. The Redbirds defense fared surprisingly well last season, and though they lose beastly interior tackle Shelby Harris, that unit should be playing with a bit of pride this year that could lead ISU to shake up the conference standings and possibly repeat their playoff contention of last season.

You look Dale Lennon's mustache in the eye when you let
it down. Credit: SIUSalukis.com

5. Southern Illinois (6-5, 5-3) - Salukis head coach Dale Lennon once again found himself as the target for fans' ire following an unremarkable 6-5 campaign that seemed to feature as many defensive scores as offensive ones (which was to say, not many). Nevertheless, SIU finished with a winning record and returns a fair number of pieces, but has to travel to UNI, SDSU, and Indiana State in the coming season. Maybe that isn't so daunting, though, considering that the Salukis had a brilliant three-game stretch last year that included wins over ranked Illinois State and Youngstown State, both of which came by double-digits and were separated by a win over scrappy Northern Iowa. SIU found ways to win tough games, and sometimes in convincing fashion, and a feisty returning defense (the kind always fielded by 3-4 mastermind Bubba Schweigert) should have SIU trending upward for 2013.

Hess's numbers last year: 63.3% completion, 15 TDs, 7 INTs. Zero
career playoff games. Credit: YSUsports.com

6. Youngstown State (7-4, 4-4) - Kurt Hess entered the MVFC as a superstar freshman three years ago,
and in his final year at YSU he'll doubtless look to return to the that form and bring the Penguins back to conference relevance after two debacles last year that saw the then-ranked  'Guins get crushed by first NDSU (falling 48-7 after a 4-0 start and a top-five ranking) then SIU (losing at home 38-21 to the unranked Salukis). Youngstown State has a lot to live down this year, and while I think they have the ability to do better than sixth, they haven't demonstrated that they can be better year and, more importantly, that they can deliver in the big game. I want to believe, really.

Bell was a 2011 Payton finalist and averaged 5.5 yards per
carry last season. Credit: valley-football.org

7. Indiana State (7-4, 5-3) - Trent Miles and lowly Indiana State was one of the best feel-good stories in college football: 33 straight losses snapped when the hometown hero returns to coach his alma mater and brings the Sycamores to conference relevance the next few years. All ruined when Miles accepted a position to coach at FBS-bound Georgia State. Now the Sycs are feeling targeted as many are predicting a fall from glory back to the cellar days of lore, and outside of running back Shakir Bell, there isn't much they can do about it. Granted, Bell needs just over 700 yards and four touchdowns to take over the career leader spots in both categories at InSU, but that might be all the team can look forward to with the new coaching staff.

8. South Dakota (0-8, 1-10) - Joe Glenn's first season at South Dakota was a harsh wake-up call, and it goes to show that even a famed FCS coach can't make the necessary changes overnight. South Dakota should be a bit better, though their schedule does them no favors. There isn't much to take away from last season except that things can't get much worse (55-0 "home" loss to NDSU in Sioux Falls, anyone?), and really any movement almost by default has to be upward. This feels like more of a "dark horse" pick than UNI at second, that's for sure.

9. Missouri State (3-8, 3-5) - Missouri State lost some baffling games last year, and in a few were a mere score away from notching as many as three more wins in their docket last season. They even had a chance to defeat reigning champ NDSU, save for a timely last-second endzone interception by Bison DB Christian Dudzik. A 19-34 seven-year record in the Valley is all you need to look at to know why Bears' fans are clamoring for Allen to be fired despite his impressive resume. MSU does face just one FBS opponent this year, but as they face Southland foe Central Arkansas as well on their non-conference schedule, seeing more than four or five wins for the Bears is a tough call.

10. Western Illinois (3-8, 1-7) - WIU managed to score ten points just once in their final six games, and cracked 20 just three times (albeit to Butler, South Dakota, and something called Indianapolis). The team got flat-out run over in conference play, and doesn't seem to be trending any better, though with Missouri State, South Dakota and a DII team coming to Macomb, the opportunities for crowd-sating victories are there. Otherwise, it's going to be a long season if last year's finish is any indication.

2013 Offensive Player of the Year: Sawyer Kollmorgen, QB, Northern Iowa
2013 Defensive Player of the Year: Marcus Williams, DB, North Dakota State
2013 Coach of the Year: Mark Farley, Northern Iowa
2013 Newcomer of the Year: Jared Barnett, QB, Illinois State

Eager to hear your thoughts and takes on the upcoming season. The countdown is barely a month off!

Missouri Valley Attendance

The Fargodome as it hosted Georgia Southern last year in the playoffs. 

The Missouri Valley Football Conference has a pretty good showing so far this season attendance wise. As of October 21st, six of the ten Valley teams are in the top 30 in attendance according to the NCAA; all six of those schools are averaging more than 10,000 fans per game. Of course, it is usually about this time of the season where attendance tends to drop off. The weather gets colder and more people tend to stay home and follow the game online or watch a larger BCS game with title and Heisman implications from Buffalo Wild Wings. Here are the attendance averages thus far in the Missouri Valley:

Coughlin-Alumni Stadium renovation plans for an upgrade
to over 20,000. 

1. North Dakota State (18,655)
2. Youngstown State (15,886)
3. Northern Iowa (13,696)
4. Western Illinois (12,878)
5. South Dakota State (12,148)
6. Southern Illinois (10,784)
7. Missouri State (9,073)
8. South Dakota (8,998)
9. Indiana State (6,771)
10. Illinois State (6,441)

With the amount of success Indiana State and Illinois State are having this season the numbers are surprising. However, remember that Illinois State is in the midst of a remodel and I believe half of their stadium is under construction. Indiana State does not have the support. After more than a decade of being at the bottom of the Gateway/MVFC, Indiana State's football support has dwindled. However, at 6,771, Indiana State's attendance is on the rise. In 2008, the Sycamores averaged 3,885 fans per game. South Dakota also has something to look forward to. Even though the performance on field has struggled this season, I do expect the Coyotes to field a competitive MVFC team in the near future. South Dakota also has plans to build a basketball arena which would allow the Dakota Dome to be reconfigured--presumably into something similar to the UNI-Dome.

Northern Iowa's UNI-Dome, holds up to 16,000. South
Dakota's Dakota Dome is essentially a one-sided UNI-Dome.

South Dakota State also has big plans to increase attendance in the future. So far this season the Jackrabbits have averaged just over 12,000 per game. With two home games left (Hobo Day & in-state rival South Dakota) that average will soar--both games have only standing-room-only tickets available. South Dakota State will break ground within the next year on a new Indoor Practice Facility which is the first step into completely renovating the area around Coughlin-Alumni Stadium, and the stadium itself. The amount of enthusiasm for South Dakota State has gone through the roof; the last season of division II the Jackrabbits were averaging just over 5,000 fans per game.

North Dakota State has the most electric game-day experience, not only because of the amount of fans, but because of the culture and atmosphere the Dome provides. It is incredible how loud the Fargodome gets. I wonder sometimes what the future of the Bison football program holds. The Bison sold out every football game this year and will likely repeat that for years to come. The fan support in Fargo could easily make an argument for a 25,000-35,000 seat stadium that could easily be sold out like the Fargodome.

Monday Musings: The Valley gets flipped

 A dramatic re-enactment of Johnny Towalid's two pick sixes

 versus NDSU on Saturday

Saturday was a day of much confusion for a variety of reasons, chief among them being that my once-solid faith in the ability of North Dakota State's football team to absolutely dominate the remainder of their schedule was found wanting. Not only was that which was unshakable in fact shaken, but the Bison seemed to regress from the juggernaut of an offensive-defensive combo nightmare that we all know and love to the defense-heavy nosebleed-passing game that helped contribute to a 14 losses in 2008 and 2009. Brock Jensen seemed slow running out of the tunnel, and after throwing three picks (two for defensive scores that simply broke the back of a rattled offense - see video) the Bison simply couldn't recover. I could break down this game ad nauseum, but we've got other games to get to. Suffice it to say that the Bison will bounce back and are still entirely deserving of their top-five ranking across the TSN, Coaches', Media, and AGS.com polls.

Meanwhile, about three and a half hours south, South Dakota State fans are wondering what they need to do to catch a break and get some recognition in the polls. The cynic in me points to three other Valley teams claiming FCS wins and the fact that outside of a win over the suddenly-hot Indiana State Sycamores the Jacks don't own a really great win that the majority of the top ten can claim. The Jacks made my poll submission at #10, and with the meat of their conference schedule still ahead of them (don't forget, they don't play Illinois State this year), they'll have the opportunities to show what they're made of. SDSU manages to keep winning despite Austin Sumner channeling his inner Tom O'Brien (barely over 50-percent completion and two picks in the 31-10 win over WIU) and the reason is Zach Zenner. Just 19 carries, and he throws up 171 yards and 2 scores. My questions about his long-term durability stand, but if he can keep that kind of production up it's hard to see how he doesn't win Offensive-POTY in the Valley, and likely helps the Jacks secure a playoff bid. Only two wins to go for the Jacks.

Youngstown State continues its disastrous slide after falling to a resurgent Illinois State team that was able to shake off getting shut out by Southern Illinois the week before. For those who didn't catch the box score, the Penguins held a 28-7 lead until the :32 mark of the second quarter when Matt Brown decided he was going to win this one. Three passing TDs and a rushing score with 2:44 remaining in the fourth and Brown's comeback tour was complete with an ailing YSU team in the wake of his rampage. The Penguins are suddenly a hard team to figure out, and they face a third test when Southern Illinois comes to town this weekend. If they lose this one, a season that once seemed on a track for greatness is all-of-a-sudden very vulnerable.

Speaking of Southern Illinois, where did these guys come from? The Salukis have won four of their last five and have nocked wins over Illinois State and Northern Iowa, but face the gauntlet of @YSU, @NDSU, and at home vs. SDSU in the next three weeks. If they can steal two of those three, they'll be 5-2 in the Valley with just lowly Western Illinois to go. That defense has found its identity, and if they can play like NDSU did last year and ride that with a steady offensive performance to complement, surprises could be in store for SIU's future.

Good for Missouri State getting that first win of the season.

Power rankings are going to be a bearcat this week, but we'll have those out in the next day or two. Meanwhile, what's the scoop, Valley fans? Is NDSU still the team to beat? Can SDSU hang on to their top spot in the conference? What is YSU's fate? Is SIU for real? Which teams can rally and secure one of those precious playoff spots?

Weekend Prognosticator: Week 7

All ten Valley teams are in play this weekend, and a few match ups get pretty juicy. Let's dive right in. Rankings are from the TSN Poll because it's the one I have in front of me.

South Dakota (1-4, 0-2 MVFC) @ Missouri State (0-6, 0-3 MVFC)
Both teams are winless in the conference and each see the opponent as their best chance for that first Valley win. Missouri State managed to hold Indiana State to a single-score advantage for much of the game last weekend while the Coyotes put up 31 in a shootout with Illinois State two weeks ago. Who will win the battle for the MVFC's cellar?
Pick: Missouri State

Western Illinois (3-2, 1-1 MVFC) @ #19 South Dakota State (4-1, 2-0 MVFC)
South Dakota State is off to a hot 4-1 start, and the Leathernecks snagged themselves a win at South Dakota last weekend. Do the Jacks try to air it out behind sophomore QB Austin Sumner, who has been less than stellar in his second year behind the helm? Or do they continue to ride sophomore RB Zach Zenner, whose candidacy for the Walter Payton Award has helped propel the Jacks to the top of the Valley standings?
Pick: South Dakota State

#25 Northern Iowa (1-4, 0-2 MVFC) @ Southern Illinois (3-3, 2-1 MVFC)
The Panthers have had a bye week to try and refocus after a disastrous 1-4 start that leaves them virtually eliminated from the playoffs, though it came against a schedule that would devastate most teams in the country. Stud freshman QB Sawyer Kollmorgen faces the tall task of rallying the Panthers to salvage some pride while the Salukis have quietly redeemed themselves after a slow start to the season, going 3-1 in their last four. Though the Panthers are far better than their record indicates, playing in Carbondale gives the Salukis too much steam.
Pick: Southern Illinois

#28 Indiana State (4-2, 2-1 MVFC) @ #1 North Dakota State (5-0, 2-0 MVFC)
Indiana State faces the tall task of playing in Fargo, and after Shakir Bell was held under 100 yards in Terre Haute last year the prognosis doesn't seem much better. The Bison are on a roll right now and with a downgrade at quarterback, the Sycamores will need to come up with some magic to challenge the Bison in this one.
Pick: North Dakota State

#8 Youngstown State (4-1, 1-1 MVFC) @ #16 Illinois State (5-1, 2-1 MVFC)
My game of the week in the Valley pits two one-loss, Top-25 teams against each other in a battle for Who Can Remain the Most Relevant After Week 7. The Penguins will try to save some face after getting embarrassed by NDSU last weekend while the Redbirds will try to reverse a dangerous slump after getting shut out by SIU. Who wants it more? Which defense can do the best to slow the opposing offense?
Pick: Youngstown State

Monday Musings: Post-Week 6

On Saturday afternoon, as I was walking through the Fargodome's south lot on the way back to my car, I tweeted to the effect that there are victories that can constitute scariness and make a fan/broadcaster/beat writer tremble when considering what a team that defeats the third-best team in the country by 41 points could do in the long haul. That was my mindset after watching North Dakota State put on a clinic over #3 Youngstown State.

I've been selling positivity and prognostication on this NDSU team for the better part of the last five years and don't have the words to put to paper that captures just how magnificently the Bison performed on Saturday as they simply crushed the Penguins to the tune of 48-7 in the most recent game of a series where the winner has been decided by, at most, eight points over the past few years. The first reaction of the average fan will be to assume that NDSU got some breaks, and they did - but the chief point I want to impart to those same cynics is that forcing other teams into mistakes that benefit the Bison is simply what this team does and has done for the past two-and-a-half years.

Coming into the game, YSU's Kurt Hess was right near the top of the national passer efficiency metrics sitting right around the 175-mark, having yet to throw a pick in the 2012 season. NDSU's Marcus Williams changed that in the second quarter with a back-breaking 98-yard pick-for-score that put the Bison up 21-7 as the Penguins had been threatening to tie at 14. Carlton Littlejohn did the same in the third quarter sans touchdown, and Hess simply couldn't get into the rhythm of things as he completed a season-low 55.0-percent of his passes (11/20) for just 117 yards. All the credit in the world has to go to first-year NDSU defensive coordinator Chris Klieman (who was with Northern Iowa just two years ago) for putting together a game plan that had Hess rattled from the get-go.

Photo courtesy inforum.com/Bob Nelson

I'll have my power rankings out later in the week as I try to figure out what to do with a bye-week South Dakota State and Northern Iowa, but a few things of note in the meantime:

Illinois State needs to figure it out, fast. After struggling to get a win at South Dakota in a 34-31 thriller, the Redbirds laid an absolute egg in their own homecoming game as Southern Illinois shut them out 17-0. Playoff teams can't expect to stay in the hunt long if they play like that, and even the benefit of an FBS win over Eastern Michigan won't help them much if they continue to struggle against beatable teams. The good news for ISU is that they need to scrape just two wins out of home games vs. YSU, MSU, and NDSU and road games at Northern Iowa and Indiana State to reach the magical seventh win they need to be considered for the playoffs, and if NDSU in 2010 is any precedent, the FBS win should put them over the top.

Indiana State fended off a surprisingly stingy Missouri State defense and needed a fourth-quarter score from Shakir Bell to really ice their 31-17 victory. The Sycamores have been a bit of a mystery this year but I'm not above saying I overvalued them at fourth-best in the conference. Still need at least three wins out of games against NDSU, WIU, USD, ILSU, and YSU and I'm chalking at least two of those to losses right now.

We'll hammer more on the playoff implications later this week, but there's the weekend re-cap for Week 6. Curious to hear what fans think of the various teams, of YSU's road collapse, of Illinois State's stinker, and more.

Saturday Thoughts

Saturday proved to be a wild one in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. North Dakota State once again proved to all of us why they are ranked #1, Southern Illinois reminded us that they are still competitors, Indiana State found their way to four wins, and South Dakota told us they are not quite "there" yet in terms of talent and execution. Northern Iowa and South Dakota State enjoyed the weekend off.

North Dakota State WR, Trevor Gebhart
(Photo: David Samson/The Forum)

Saturday Results:

North Dakota State 48, Youngstown State 7
Southern Illinois 17, Illinois State 0
Indiana State 31, Missouri State 17
Western Illinois 24, South Dakota 17

Starting with the North Dakota State/Youngstown State game--As I watched that game it was incredible to me that the Bison continuously control the entire game and force the opponents to play to their pace and their strengths. I predicted North Dakota State to win because they had the home-field advantage. Youngstown State certainly--up to this point--proved that there were a different team than the one that lost to Missouri State last year, but North Dakota State has a tendency to make teams look silly. The Bison stopped the run early and forced Kurt Hess to throw the ball. The short throws weren't there and Hess had to find the deep routes. The problem with that was that there wasn't enough time. The Bison front four dominated and forced Hess into making mistakes. There were not to many positives for Youngstown State in this loss. Next week, Youngstown State will be able to take out their frustrations on what seems to be an overrated Illinois State team.

I was surprised by the score of the Illinois State game. I was following it throughout the North Dakota State game, but I always expected the Redbirds to find their grove and put the Salukis away--they never did. Southern Illinois dominated this game, beginning to end. The thing that confuses me the most about this game is that I'm not sure whether Illinois State is that over-rated, or if Southern Illinois is just finding their grove. My first reaction is that both are correct. Illinois State struggled against South Dakota last week and the Coyotes lost to Western Illinois this week. The Saluki's defense is what is turning things around in Carbondale. The Salukis gave up 79 points in their first two games, since then, they have given up 44 points in four games and have gone 3-1. Southern Illinois could be a mid-season darkhorse. 

Indiana State had a scare against Missouri State, however, they pulled away late in the game to seal the deal. Since being held to less than 50 yards in the game against South Dakota State, Shakir Bell has rolled off 271 yards in the past two weeks. One thing that I noticed about this game was that after Missouri State benched Ashton Glaser, Kierra Harris came into the game and provided a burst on offense for the Bears. Missouri State pulled off 10 straight points to take a 17-10 lead, after that the Bear defense stopped showing up and Indiana State rolled through to a 31-17 victory. Missouri State is still winless and its crazy how often they shoot themselves in the foot. Next week the Bears will host South Dakota in a game that could decide who finishes last in the Valley.

USD QB, Josh Vander Maten
(Photo: Jim Lee/Sioux City Journal)

Western Illinois really needed this win. After two straight losses where they were outscored 60-6, the Leathernecks solidified on defense and kept the Coyotes in front of them. Western also made a quarterback change, something I have been calling for since week 2. Wil Lunt, the senior quarterback out of Rochester, IL, threw for a modest 170 yards and two touchdowns. If Western can continue to be effective in the pass game like they were on Saturday, they could surprise a few teams. Next week Western will travel back to South Dakota, this time playing outside in the elements when they battle South Dakota State.

Playoff Implications

With Illinois State and Youngstown State losing and Southern Illinois winning, it certainly raises some questions on what this week could have meant for playoffs. Illinois State needs to rebound next week against Youngstown State or else they might find themselves aboard a sinking ship. Southern Illinois although unlikely to make the playoffs (they would need to win out--not happening) they could easily upset some team's playoff hopes, that might have just happened today (if Illinois State finishes 7-4) Even so, the Valley has multiple teams still positioning themselves for the playoffs:

North Dakota State (5-0)
Youngstown State (4-1)
Illinois State (5-1)
South Dakota State (4-1)
Indiana State (4-2)

Week 4 Recap and Early Playoff Chat

Huge, huge win for North Dakota State on Saturday as the Bison finally answered the age-old question of "what have you done for me lately?" by handing Northern Iowa an ugly loss (uglier than the last-minute touchdown made it seem, as the game very well could've been 33-14 or worse) that effectively eliminates UNI's playoff hopes. To this point, the Bison have played something of an underwhelming schedule that even a double-digit win at FBS opponent Colorado State couldn't salvage, defeating handily FCS cupcakes Robert Morris and Prairie View A&M by a combined margin of 118-7. Obviously the polls weren't exactly unkind to the Bison, who have been atop the Top 25 for the entirety of the FBS season, but NDSU is finally starting to cement its position as being clearly the top team in the country. Even more huge game in Fargo versus Youngstown State this weekend, more on that later on.

How about South Dakota State making a little magic early in the season? The Jacks are suddenly a quiet 4-1 (2-0 MVFC) after getting a 10-point win over Missouri State, and once again it was Zach Zenner carrying the load with 182 yards on the ground, including an 88-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. Zenner has to be a leading candidate for Offensive Player of the Year, especially when teams like North Dakota State and Youngstown State have so much talent elsewhere on the team for superstars like Brock Jensen and Kurt Hess (not to mention Illinois State's Matt Brown) to lean on. The Jacks still play Western Illinois and South Dakota at home, and need just one road win out of Southern Illinois, North Dakota State, Youngstown State or Northern Iowa to reach that magic number seven and have a shot at a playoff bid. Hand it to Coach Stig, the Jacks have come to play this year and if sophomore QB Austin Sumner can figure his game out (just 50.9% completion, 5:9 TD:INT ratio this year) the Jacks could be, perhaps, a dangerous team if they make the playoffs as a probable fourth Valley team.

Indiana State has had me stumped this year. I thought Shakir Bell would be a leading candidate for the Payton Award, and after dropping 349 on Drake in Week 3 I was ready to buy their Valley stock before SDSU absolutely stymied the Sycamores and shackled Bell to just 54 yards a week later. Now they go and beat Southern Illinois 24-3 in Carbondale, where the Salukis have been a different team - point in case, last year's national championship NDSU team won just 9-3 at Southern Illinois. I pegged Indiana State as the fourth best team in the Valley to start the season behind NDSU, YSU, and ISU (red) and ahead of UNI on the basis that Bell's offense combined with a quietly stout defense led by Ben Obaseki could secure a fourth Valley playoff bid; at this point I consider NDSU, YSU, and ILSU more or less locks on the basis that all need just three more wins to be playoff eligible in an absolutely brutal Valley and ILSU plays four of their last six at home (including vs. MSU and SIU). Toss in an FBS victory for each and suddenly that SDSU victory over the Sycamores is huge if a fourth Valley bid is in the mix. We'll know a lot more about INSU after they play Missouri State this weekend, really more probably how much they win by as opposed to whether they win or not.

Speaking of Illinois State, I admit my usually-strong confidence about Matt Brown and Friends is a bit shaken after USD put a scare into them to the tune of a 34-31 gem that went down in Vermillion. The Redbirds have a sneaky-tough game against Southern Illinois this weekend, and a win puts them in a good spot to secure a playoff bid with, as mentioned above, four of their last six at home. I think they beat Northern Iowa on October 27th, and with that they could very well end up being 9-2 or possibly better. I think at worst they go 7-4, and that win over an FBS team gets them in as the third Valley team.

Finally, what does Northern Iowa do? Do they phone it in now that the playoffs are more or less out of the picture, maybe give some young guys a shot with Sawyer Kollmorgen ready to metamorphose into a preying mantis feasting on the hapless defenses the conference's bottom-half presents? Do they play for pride and watch players like Varmah Sonie rack up a whole bunch of frustration-PI penalties when he's doing things like refusing a pre-game handshake (sorry Panther fans, had to sneak that one in)? I'm genuinely interested to see what the Panthers do the rest of the season because I think they have the talent on their team to make the playoffs if a combination of a broke State of Iowa and Savannah State University didn't royally screw them over with a schedule that damned them the moment it was conceived. That said, I see them winning at most five games yet this season, and 5 D-I wins isn't enough to put the Panthers in the playoffs.

NDSU-YSU looms on the horizon as the Valley game of the century (bigger than NDSU-UNI last season, which felt like World War III in Fargo) with all the incredible storylines playing out on Gate City Bank Field. Student tickets for the game were sold out by 3 p.m. today and the Homecoming atmosphere is going to be an absolute riot. I like the Bison by a score in this one, but the Penguins showed last year they can solve NDSU's defense. Don't undervalue the return of bulky Bison run-stopped Ryan Drevlow, who was out of the game last season and consequently allowed the Bison to cough up a bunch of bad rushing yards against. Might be a different case this year, but we'll find out on Saturday.

What do you think, Mitch?

Saturday Thoughts

YSU's Kurt Hess powered through the rain as
threw for 290 yards and 4 TD's against UNI
(Photo: YSUSports.com)

Youngstown State affirmed its power on Saturday as they continued to knock down opponents as they come; on Saturday it was Northern Iowa who took one on the chin. I don't want to take anything away from Northern Iowa, they played great--on offense. However, Youngstown State also played great--on offense. Defensively, Youngstown State made a couple of key plays that sealed the win.

For Northern Iowa, the schedule continues to be tough and they can not afford to lose any more games. Unfortunately next weekend they face North Dakota State which will be another insanely tough game for the Panthers--this time, however, they will finally be able to host one of these tough teams. The home-field-dome advantage might play a factor in how the game is played out, but I feel that North Dakota State has so many weapons that it will be tough for Northern Iowa to keep up. Also, what separates the Panthers and the Bison are their defenses, North Dakota State has allowed 14 points through three games. On the other hand, North Dakota State hasn't seen an offense like Northern Iowa's yet this year. We'll see how these two teams match up on Saturday; it should be a good game.

The other big win over the weekend was South Dakota State over Indiana State. The Jackrabbits haven't been an overpowering team since 2009 when they made it to the playoffs. After two years of underachieving (5-6 both years), South Dakota State looks to be a fairly potent opponent for any team. The difference between this years team and last years team has been the defense and the offensive line/running back. Last Winter, Offensive Coordinator and O-Line coach Luke Meadows took a job with Florida Atlantic which left a void for an O-Line and O-Coordinator. Eric Eidsness--also the quarterbacks coach--took over the O-Coordinator position and the O-Line position was filled by John Flynn--who was a former offensive lineman and later a GA for Oklahoma. During his time as a GA at Oklahoma he worked with NFL Draftees, Trent Williams, Phil Loadholt, and Duke Robinson. It seems this coaching change has made a significant impact considering these lineman are the same from last year's SDSU team.

SDSU RB, Zach Zenner breaks through the Sycamore defense.
Zanner ran for over 200 yards, again.
(Photo: Matt Kryger/Indy Star)

Indiana State came on the losing end of that South Dakota State game and that loss certainly revealed Indiana State's weaknesses. First, the run game--ah hem, Shakir Bell-- was stopped in his tracks. After the run game was stymied, the Sycamores turned to their passing game, which showed promise, but was ultimately inconsistent and not enough to keep moving the chains. With the passing game came the pressure from the Jackrabbit defensive lineman. Indiana State quarterback Mike Perish was sacked six times in the loss to the Jackrabbits. Indiana State will need to prove themselves against Southern Illinois next weekend in order to redeem themselves as a contender. However, the loss the South Dakota State hurts them significantly. In addition to beating all the bottom half of the MVFC teams, the Sycamores will also need to win two of three games against the following teams: Youngstown State, North Dakota State, and Illinois State. Luckily, the Sycamores avoid Northern Iowa this year in unbalanced scheduling.

Team on the rise: Southern Illinois. Southern Illinois has played fairly well the past two weeks. The most significant improvement that I've seen with the Salukis is their ability to create turnovers and not turn the ball over themselves. This past weekend they were significantly out-gained in offensive production by Missouri State, however, Missouri State turned the ball over three times. This--and 100 yards of penalties by the Bears-- allowed Southern Illinois to come out of Springfield victorious. Missouri State is struggling to say the least. They started out the season playing two ranked FBS teams pretty tough, and now they've lost two straight against okay--but not formidable--FCS competition. Next week the Bears will have a chance to show what they've got against South Dakota State in Brookings.

Illinois State is a team that is 4-0 and has the ability to control games. Of course, they've played Eastern Michigan (FBS, but still...), Dayton, Eastern Illinois (I think they're a pretty decent OVC team), and Western Illinois. We'll see what this Redbird team has when they face off against Youngstown State in a few weeks. However, I think Illinois State's schedule is built to their favor. The Redbirds have a very real chance of being 6-0 when they enter that game against Youngstown State. This weekend the Redbirds will travel to Vermillion, South Dakota to take on the Coyotes. I don't think this Coyote team is as bad as many are preaching. Yet, I don't think that South Dakota has the firepower to hang with Illinois State.

Conference Standings Through Week 4

Last on my list here is Western Illinois. Not to say here other than they played well and hung closer with Illinois State than many people predicted. I think Western Illinois has talent--mostly on defense and at the running back position. However, I think that the O-line, quarterbacks, and wide-receivers need some work in order for Western Illinois to compete. The Leathernecks will enjoy a much-needed weekend off before they square off with South Dakota on October 9th.

Looking Ahead to Week #4

Northern Iowa's defense will need to play lights out
against Youngstown State.  (Photo: Cliff Jette/The Gazette)

It gets real. Excluding North Dakota State and South Dakota who are still messing around in non-conference play after having a nice week off, the other Missouri Valley schools will begin the yearly meat-grinder that is Missouri Valley conference play. Right out of the gate we have a huge game with enormous playoff implications featuring Youngstown State and Northern Iowa.Youngstown State has not beaten Northern Iowa since the Tressel era and will look to end that 11-year losing streak to the Panthers. Another big matchup will feature two teams, Indiana State and South Dakota State, who are both blowing up the NCAA rushing statistics--both Shakir Bell and Zach Zenner are averaging more than 200 yards rushing per game. If your internet service provider is kind enough to include the services of ESPN 3, Youngstown State-Northern Iowa, Missouri State-Southern Illinois, and North Dakota State-Prairie View A&M will all be televised via ESPN 3.

Predictions:

Southern Illinois 31, Missouri State 38

Indiana State 28, South Dakota State 17

Northwestern 45, South Dakota 20

North Dakota State 38, Prairie View A&M 10

Illinois State 45, Western Illinois 13

Youngstown State 29, Northern Iowa 28


Southern Illinois at Missouri State is an interesting matchup. This game, although it features two struggling teams, is in fact a pretty big game for these two programs. Southern Illinois is coming off of a nice win against Southeastern Missouri State which gave the Salukis some much needed momentum and confidence. On the other hand, Missouri State fell to 0-3 against Murray State in a game that I expected the Bears two win. I'm not sure what the Bears are going to have to do to get in that win-column, but I don't see Missouri State coming out with a win here against the Salukis. Southern Illinois is getting better every week, and Kory Faulkner finally played a game worthy of praise last week--384 yards and 3 TDs. The biggest weakness for both of these teams are their defenses and whoever can control that aspect of the game should win this game.

Indiana State RB, Shakir Bell (Photo: TheStatesman.com)

South Dakota State will travel to Terre Haute to take on Indiana State in another big conference match-up. These two teams have been running the ball extremely well; In my opinion whichever team mixes up their play-calling the best and keeps the defense off-balance will win this game. I've been very impressed with Indiana State Mike Perish and I think he will provide that balance that will win this game. However, the Jackrabbit defense has been extremely stout; if they keep the Sycamore offense in check, South Dakota State could pick up a huge win.

So I predicted North Dakota State to beat Prairie View by only 28 points. I understand that might be offensive to some Bison fans, but let me just explain myself quick. The Bison will be up at least 38-0 in the fourth quarter, 2nd and 3rd stringers will be in, and the Panthers get some points in garbage time. Don't worry Bison fans! I'm still predicting a dominant performance. For example, last week I attended the Iowa State-Western Illinois game. Although the score only said 37-3, that game was completely controlled by the Cyclones and the winner was never in doubt.

It could get ugly in Macomb this weekend. The Redbirds are a very potent team on offense and have the capability to score from anywhere on the field. If Western wants to stay in this game they will need to come up with some big turnovers and play to that homecoming crowd and maintain momentum. However, if the Leathernecks find themselves down by 14, this one could be over; I still haven't seen that big playmaking ability from anyone on the Western Illinois squad.

South Dakota will be the last Missouri Valley team to play an FBS game this year. They'll face up with Northwestern of the Big Ten. Scary thing about this Northwestern team: they are the only team in Division one that has three wins against BCS competition. Northwestern sort of gimmicky offense that could torch the Coyotes on the ground, especially since South Dakota's run defense is currently one of their biggest weaknesses. On the contrary, South Dakota always plays well against FBS competition, so I expect them to put up some points, but I don't see them keeping up with the Wildcats.

Youngstown State RB, Jamaine Cook
(Photo: YSUSports.com)

I literally have no idea what is going to happen in this Youngstown State-Northern Iowa game. Honestly, I have no idea. Northern Iowa's schedule has been so brutal, yet they have played very well against that tough competition. Youngstown State played amazing against Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but since then they have slacked on the competition and have played teams from the Pioneer League and the NEC. Sawyer Kollmorgen vs. Kurt Hess and Jamaine Cook vs. David Johnson, it will be interesting to see who emerges as the big playmakers in this crucial Missouri Valley match-up. The game should be a sell-out, the environment should be amazing, and if you're attending this game have fun because it should be a barnburner.

Is Matt Brown the best QB in the MVFC?

In case you missed it this past weekend, Illinois State found itself in an absolute gem of a double-overtime game versus Eastern Illinois of the Ohio Valley Conference as the two teams racked up a combined 1,042 yards of offense and 105 points. Of those numbers, 473 yards and five scores came from the arm of senior ISU quarterback Matt Brown, who is making his case this season as the top passer in a Valley stocked with top-tier QBs.

Image source: www.washingtonpost.com

In addition to his video-game numbers from this past weekend, Brown has totaled 820 yards and nine touchdowns on 69% completion through three games this season, including a very steady 155 yards, one score and one of his two interceptions in the Redbirds' big win over FBS opponent Eastern Michigan.

Coming into the season, there was a sort of unspoken "old guard" of returning quarterbacks that would be contending as the top passers in what is a very run-oriented league. In no particular order, that list was:

• Kurt Hess, Jr., Youngstown State, who helped propel the Penguins to produce the most offense in the Valley last season;
• Brock Jensen, Jr., North Dakota State, the ultra-efficient game manager who guided the Bison to a Valley crown and the 2011 FCS national championship;
• Austin Sumner, So., South Dakota State, the freshman who gave Jackrabbit fans a reason to head to Coughlin Alumni Stadium with his ludicrous numbers through the air;
• Matt Brown, whom you should know at this point.

 That list is staying more or less consistent, though one addition in particular, Northern Iowa's freshman Sawyer Kollmorgen, has emerged as the go-to candidate for MVFC Freshman of the Year and has kept the Panthers competitive in the hellish schedule that includes close losses to Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Iowa.

The production of Sumner in particular has taken a step back with the eruption of sophomore running back Zach Zenner, who leads the conference in rushing through the first three games of the season with an average of 222 yards per game on the ground (and had the Jacks' only two scores over UC-Davis this past weekend). Not to take any credit from Zenner, but Sumner has not only thrown at just over 50% completion, but has six interceptions to just three touchdowns so far in 2012. To write him off would be simply irresponsible, but with a suddenly-potent rushing game it's hard to see the SDSU coaching staff going back to that Texas Tech offense and have Sumner throw the ball sixty times per game.

 Hess, similarly, hasn't put up the kind of numbers he was notching at this point in the season last year, throwing just four touchdowns in three games (certainly trending far below his mark of 26 in 11 games last year) and has a game-high of just 186 versus Albany this past weekend. It's fair to argue that the Valley holds in store some sterner defenses, but with the added dimension of knowing the upcoming opponents better than one-shot out-of-conference foes like Valparaiso and Pittsburgh, it's hard to gauge whether he'll return to his 2011 form. In any event, the Penguins are a Top-5 team nationally, are 3-0, and are very real contenders for a deep playoff run if they can keep their level of play up through the MVFC season, so you won't hear too many complaints from the Penguin faithful anyway.

Jensen has more or less kept pace with his progress from last season, keeping his razor-sharp passing on the money (64% completion in two games) and his role as a game-manager at the forefront. Jensen faces the unpleasant reality of NDSU's offensive scheme, which is predicted on running the football, and will very rarely attempt anything more than 25-30 passes per game, making his stats a bit stunted by design but nonetheless keeping his numbers in the prime of efficiency as he rarely throws interceptions.  With a health pair of backs leading the way on the ground for the Bison, don't look for Jensen to challenge for the league's end-of-season offensive MVP title.

The wild card in this whole discussion is the aforementioned Kollmorgen, who has a stunning 739 yards, six scores and a single interception to his credit as a passer through the Panthers' three games this season. The real magic of Kollmorgen comes from his status as a redshirt freshman taking over for the sensational Tirrell Rennie, and he delivered some sensation of his own when he nearly led the Panthers to a fourth-quarter upset of the then 12th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers. Kollmorgen threw for 265 yards and a flawless three touchdowns in that game, two of which came in the fourth quarter in a furious comeback bid. While his talent isn't any surprise, or at least shouldn't be to anyone who knows how UNI Head Coach Mark Fairley puts his teams together, his numbers do raise some eyebrows. With a pair of talented backs in David Anderson and Carlos Anderson, Northern Iowa strikes one as a run-first team trying to get back to a more pro-style offense that they were forced to abandon with the ludicrous athleticism Rennie brought to the table the past two years. With such a transitory offense and a good stable of running backs, the Panthers seem more suited to a grind-it-out game yet are throwing the ball 28 times per game. I'm curious to see if the Panthers adopt a more conservative game when they don't have to play from behind against FBS opponents, and the next few games against Youngstown State and North Dakota State should give us a much clearer picture of where UNI wants to go with their offense. A masochistic voice in my head can't wait to see how Kollmorgen fares against NDSU's secondary, which is arguably the best and deepest in the country.

What all this boils down to is that Brown has both the stats and the accomplishments, bringing ISU from a pretender to a contender with a 7-win rap sheet last year, to claim his title as the best passer in the league through non-conference season so far. Obviously with just three games in the books it's tough to set any anticipations in stone, but with conference season right around the corner I'm awfully excited to see what he and the rest of the Valley QBs bring to the table.

Saturday Thoughts

The Missouri Valley Football Conference picked up some more wins over the weekend in non-conference play--the only teams that lost were Northern Iowa and Missouri State. The wins this week were closer than last week; both Youngstown State and Indiana State struggled putting away weaker FCS opponents. The most surprising game, in my opinion, was Southern Illinois. Although, that must have not been too surprising to some considering the Salukis were receiving votes in the AnyGivenSaturday.com top 25 poll, even before the weekend, when they were sitting at 0-2.

Illinois State QB, Matt Brown (Photo: Steve Smedley)

Illinois State 54, Eastern Illinois 51

Instant classic in Normal over the weekend. Eastern Illinois is a pretty solid team from the Ohio Valley Conference and played Illinois State through two overtimes. The Redbirds final scoring strike was a 25 yard touchdown pass from Matt Brown to Tyrone Walker to end the game. Matt Brown passed for 473 yards--a career best--in a thriller. Illinois State is well on its way to playoff eligibility and should pick up another win next week against Western Illinois.

Indiana State 27, Drake 10

This game was tied 10-10 at halftime, however, the Sycs dominanted the second half and pulled away. Shakir Bell ran for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns. I was high on Mike Perish last week, but this week he was less than spectacular throwing for only 94 yards with 1 TD and an interception. Drake's quarterback Michael Piatkowski out-performed Perish throwing for 329 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. In the end, Indiana State controlled the second half and did what they needed to do to pull of a nice win against a pretty good Drake football team.

South Dakota State RB, Zach Zenner
(Photo: The Collegian/Aaron Stoneberger)

South Dakota State 12, UC Davis 8

Ugly game up in Brookings over the weekend, however, South Dakota State's defense is once again proving that it belongs as they shut-out the UC Davis offense. The Aggies only points came from a pick-six (something that apparently is still plaguing the Jackrabbits) and was capped off with a two-point conversion. On a good note, running back Zach Zenner hasn't missed a beat. He ran for 193 yards and two touchdowns yesterday. The Jackrabbits will need to start strong and finish drives if they are going to knock off the Sycamores in Terre Haute next weekend.

Iowa 27, Northern Iowa 16

Northern Iowa played great against Big Ten competition again. However, they now sit at 1-2 and can't risk losing many more games if they want to be playoff eligible. Sawyer Kollmorgen played okay, but not as well as in the past. Northern Iowa just couldn't punch the ball into the endzone to finish off drives. They also couldn't stop the run--Iowa running back Mark Weisman ran for 111 yards and three touchdowns--and the Panthers couldn't run. Northern Iowa was held to 94 total rushing yards. Next week Northern Iowa returns to some normal, yet hard, competition as they face conference foe Youngstown State in a huge early season conference game.

Youngstown State 31, Albany 24

This game was much closer than I anticipated. I knew that Albany would score some points, but I figured Youngstown State would pull away after the half much like Indiana State did this weekend. The Penguins were off their game and won, to me, is an indication of a very good team. I don't want to take anything away from the way Albany played though, they are a good team from the NEC--and ranked in my ballot the past two weeks. We'll be seeing more from this Albany team come playoff time.

Southern Illinois WR, LaSteven McKinney
(Photo: Adam Vogler)

Southern Illinois 35, SE Missouri State 14

As I stated before, this was a much needed win for Southern Illinois. Kory Faulkner performed much better in this game than in the previous two. He will need to continue that success into the conference schedule in order for the Salukis to completely turn things around. I still am surprised that the Salukis don't run the ball more, they have two very talented backs. the Southern Illinois defense also played very well after two dismal performances. After three weeks, this Saluki team has played better each week. If they continue that trend, the Salukis could emerge as a darkhorse this season.

Iowa State 37, Western Illinois 3

I attended this game last night and was surprised that Iowa State didn't score more points. Western had trouble moving the ball all night and had trouble containing the Cyclones shifty tailbacks. Iowa State racked up over 500 yards of offense compared to 178 for Western Illinois. An a good note, Nikko Watson looked good, he had a couple of big runs but most of his yards were in a 'cloud-of-dust'. Western will face a tough Illinois State team next week.

Murray State 28, Missouri State 23

Missouri State still can not pull off a win. From looking at the stats, it looks like they shot themselves in the foot all game. Ashton Glaser threw two interceptions and they couldn't get the run game into high gear. At 0-3, Missouri State has a long way to go in oder to turn the season around. Southern Illinois will come into Springfield next week, in a must-win situation for both teams.

Looking Ahead to Week #3

UNI QB, Sawyer Kollmorgen could be the catalyst in an upset
against Iowa this weekend. (Photo: Jeff Hanisch-U.S. Preswire) 

This week is the last week of non-conference play for most Missouri Valley Football Conference members, only North Dakota State and South Dakota--those two are on byes this week--will play non-conference games next week against Prairie View A&M and Northwestern, respectively. For a couple of teams, this week is absolutely crucial for playoff implications. For example, if Northern Iowa doesn't beat Iowa this weekend, they must run the table in the Valley to be selected for a playoff bid. A very realistic possibility would see losses to Iowa, Youngstown State, and North Dakota State; If that situation would happen, I'm afraid Northern Iowa would be sitting out of this years playoff. A 7-4 team traditionally would be waiting for an at-large bid, however, Northern Iowa beat Central State--a non-counter--so in actuality that 7-4 record is 6-4 in the eyes of the playoff selection committee. However, if Northern Iowa beats one of those three teams, I believe an 8-3 (7-3) Northern Iowa team gets into the playoffs easily.

Southern Illinois and Missouri State are also competing in games that could be eye-openers in terms of what those teams specifically will do the rest of the season. Southern Illinois plays Southeast Missouri State, if they lose this game a 3-8, 2-9 season is a real possibility. On the other hand, Missouri State is playing its first FCS team. After two straight weeks of playing tough competition--and playing well against it--we could see what this Missouri State team is really made of. Western Illinois, who sits at a 2-0 against weak competition will most likely get a reality check when they visit Ames this weekend.

MSU QB, Ashton Glaser
(Photo: Jesse Scheve/News-Leader)

Predictions:

Illinois State 42, Eastern Illinois 24

Iowa 24, Northern Iowa 23

Indiana State 41, Drake 7

South Dakota State 34, UC Davis 21

Youngstown State 52, Albany 17

Southeast Missouri State 35, Southern Illinois 31

Iowa State 52, Western Illinois 0

Missouri State 28, Murray State 17


South Dakota State needs this win against UC Davis. If they win this weekend, the Jackrabbits will need to beat two teams out of either Youngstown State, Northern Iowa, North Dakota State, or Indiana State to make the playoffs--considering they beat the teams they are expected to beat. If South Dakota State losses this weekend, then they would have to beat three of those teams, and realistically, that would be out of reach. If SDSU is going to upset two teams, it would be against Indiana State and Youngstown State on Hobo Day. I don't see the Jackrabbits going to either Dome and coming out with a win.

Illinois State should roll against Eastern Illinois, two weeks ago I saw Eastern Illinois' offense and was pretty impressed. However, that was against a sub-par Southern Illinois defense. This game could have the potential to be a high scoring game, but I think in the end the Redbirds balance will wear out Eastern Illinois. The Redbirds should have this game in the books by the late third quarter.

I think the Valley will compete well again this week. I might be getting ahead of myself with playoff implications, a lot of "Ifs and ors" this week but still a crucial time in the FCS.

Saturday Thoughts

North Dakota State CB, Aireal Boyd

The Missouri Valley went 8-2 this week. Included in those wins were two wins against FBS competition. Illinois State demolished Eastern Michigan 31-14 and North Dakota State controlled Colorado State in their 22-7 victory. Southern Illinois and Missouri State were the only teams that lost, they lost 30-14 and 35-7 respectively to FBS competition. In other games, Indiana State put Quincy away early as they won 44-0, Northern Iowa steamrolled Central State 59-0, and Youngstown State flew by Valpo 59-0. As expected, South Dakota and South Dakota State took care of their opponents and came away with wins last night as well. The most surprising game was again, Western Illinois. Western Illinois struggled with Indianapolis more than I thought they would; they won by 10 points. This was the second week in a row that Western Illinois has played below my expectations.

Illinois State 31, Eastern Michigan 14

Illinois State came out strong and took a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. Soon after, Eastern Michigan came running back to take a 14-10 halftime lead. The second half was completely dominated by Illinois State and the Redbirds pulled away to seal-the-deal. The Redbird defense in the second half was amazing; it was 3-and-out time-after-time for Eastern Michigan. Illinois State will take on Eastern Illinois next week. This should be a revenge game for the MVFC as Eastern Illinois took down conference-mate Southern Illinois in the first week.

Miami (OH) 30, Southern Illinois 14

This game didn't surprise me much. However, Southern Illinois performed much better in this game than they did against Eastern Illinois last week. The Salukis actually out-gained Miami in total offense 349 to 336. This could be a step towards getting their defense in order. Next week Southern Illinois will play Southeast Missouri State at home.

Indiana State 44, Quincy 0

Indiana State got on the board quick; 21-0 after the first, 37-0 at halftime. After halftime the starters were out and Indiana State was just running the ball. Sycamore defensive lineman Ben Obaseski got a TD run today. Next week Indiana State will play non-scholarship Drake. Drake played Montana State tough last night, the Bulldogs lost by 10. This game might not be as easy as it looks for Indiana State.

Illinois State WR, Tyrone Walker

Youngstown State 59, Valparaiso 0

The Penguin starters barely played in this game. Kurt Hess went 7-10 for 136 yards and 2 TDs, Jamaine Cook only carried the ball eight times. Didn't really matter how much they played, they still racked up 524 yards of offense. Next week, Youngstown State will play Albany, a tougher team from a lesser-scholarship conference.

South Dakota 31, Colgate 21

The Coyotes picked up a nice win here. They played much better on defense, however, Colgate had a lot of success running the ball. South Dakota will need to fill those gaps once conference play comes around. Colgate had two backs go over 100 yards in this game. On a good note, Coyote RB Marcus Sims had a great day running; he averaged over 9 yards a carry and scored once. USD will be on bye this week, however in two weeks USD will take on Northwestern who struggled with Vanderbilt last night.

Louisville 35, Missouri State 7

Again, Missouri State played well against ranked FBS competition. Missouri State hung in there and was only down 18-7 at halftime. Ashton Glaser is a pretty good quarterback for the Bears and things are looking up for them. However, in two games they still have been outscored 86-16; even if its against ranked FBS competition, these losses take their toll. Missouri State will get a home game versus Murray State next week. Murray State is 0-2 as well and was beaten pretty bad by Central Arkansas last night.

Western Illinois 27, Indianapolis 17

I predicted Western Illinois to win 35-14; it was worse than that. Indianapolis hung in there with Western Illinois and only lost by 10. Western Illinois has a tremendous amount of work to do if they want to challenge Iowa State next week. Indianapolis out-gained Western Illinois in total offense by about 50 yards, if they hadn't turned the ball over four times they might have beaten the Leathernecks. On the bright side, the Western Illinois running game was alive and well again, Caulton Ray and Nikko Watson both had decent days. However, a quarterback change seriously needs to be considered. I'm afraid Leatherneck quarterback Josh Hudson just does not have "it".

North Dakota State 22, Colorado State 7

Northern Iowa WR, Phil Wright
(Photo: Matthew Putney/WCFC)

The best part of this game was that I immediately went over to the Colorado State rivals message board. Holy cow Batman, it was pure gold. Honestly, anyone who didn't expect this is an idiot who is conceited to the level of delusion. But of course, I'm forgetting that 95% of FBS fans do not understand that there are good teams at the FCS level, and because of those 95% of FBS fans, these wins are just that much sweeter. Really, there isn't much else to say; it was a normal game for the Bison, Brock Jensen was efficient and threw a TD pass, Sam Ojuri and John Crockett combined for over 100 yards, and the defense played amazing. North Dakota State will be on a BYE this next week; they'll match up with Prairie View A&M in two weeks.

Northern Iowa 59, Central State 0

I picked 63-0, pretty close, but easy prediction. Freshman quarterback Sawyer Kollmorgen was stellar again he threw 3 TDs by the time Jared Lanpher took over in scrub time. Not much else to say about this game other than I think that Northern Iowa might seriously have a shot at beating Iowa next week.

South Dakota State 31, Southeastern Louisiana 14

South Dakota State RB, Zach Zenner
(Photo: Randy Bergeron/SELO Public Info)

The Jackrabbits were fairly dominant in this game. Southeastern Louisiana was completely overpowered at the line-of-scrimmage as Zach Zenner ran for 278 yards and a TD. Quarterback Austin Sumner added two touchdown passes as the Rabbits cruised past the Lions. South Dakota State will definitely need to work on their red-zone offense in order to pull off the big wins against top MVFC competition. Had South Dakota State converted their FG's into TD's this game would have been a larger blowout.

Looking Ahead to Week #2

The Missouri Valley should collect lots of wins this week. UNI, Youngstown State, Western Illinois, and Indiana State play week competition and should blow-out their opponents. South Dakota and South Dakota State play FCS opponents Colgate and Southeastern Louisiana. The USD-Colgate game could be close, but I expect the Coyotes to pull off a close victory at home. Southern Illinois, Illinois State, Missouri State, and North Dakota State all play FBS teams.

Taylor Nelson, TE North Dakota State (Photo: GoBison.com)

Predictions:

Miami (OH) 35, Southern Illinois 14

Illinois State 31, Eastern Michigan 24

Indiana State 52, Quincy 13

South Dakota 31, Colgate 28

Louisville 45, Missouri State 10

Western Illinois 35, Indianapolis 14

Brett LeMaster, WR Northern Iowa
(Photo: Morry Gash/LacrosseTribune)

Northern Iowa 63, Central State 0

North Dakota State 24, Colorado State 10

South Dakota State 35, Southeastern Louisiana 14


All-in-all, I expect the Missouri Valley Football Conference to perform very well this week. Some blowouts, a couple close games, and a couple losses to FBS squads. I am going to keep a close eye on the Western Illinois-Indianapolis game; if Western struggles again like it did last week against Butler it might secure most peoples thinking that it will be a long season for the Leathernecks. It will also be interesting what happens in the South Dakota State-Southeastern Louisiana game. The Jackrabbits have a chance to prove how improved their defense has become over the offseason. This game should also give quarterback Austin Sumner a chance to settle down and get back to normalcy.

Saturday Thoughts

After a rough opening on Thursday, the Missouri Valley stepped it up on Saturday. The games on Saturday featured five games against FBS competition, two games against weaker FCS opponents, and a Big Sky-MVFC match-up. Missouri Valley teams managed only three wins out of the eight games on Saturday, however, the way they performed against higher-level competition is what stood out to me.

Illinois State RB, Cameron Hunt
(Photo: Steve Smedley/The Pantagraph)

Illinois State 56, Dayton 14

No surprise here. Illinois State welcomed a non-scholarship team and had their way up and down the field. QB Matt Brown was very solid (22-34, 192, 3 TDs) and was able to get the offense going early which allowed the Redbird run game to get going. Two Redbird running backs went over 100 yards on Saturday. Darrelynn Dunn took the majority of the carries and ran for 127 yards and 3 TDs. Cameron Hunt also eclipsed the 100-yard mark. Illinois State travels to Ypsilanti, MI this week to take on Eastern Michigan; I expect Illinois State to come out with a win.

South Dakota 24, Montana 35

South Dakota played close with Montana throughout the majority of the game; they were actually winning in the third quarter 24-16. However, as I suspected, Montana would pull away late in the game. In fact, Montana dominated this game. The Grizzlies put up 586 yards of offense compared to the Coyotes 233 yards. The 'Yotes were lucky the game was this close.

Northern Iowa 21, Wisconsin 26

This game was much closer than I thought. I knew that Northern Iowa had always played tough against Iowa State and Iowa, but Wisconsin is on a whole different level. I expected this game to look much like other FCS-BCS match-ups and Northern Iowa proved once again that it is not just another FCS team. Sawyer Kollmorgen, a freshman, threw for 265 yards and 3 TDs in his first game ever. On the downer-side-of-things, if Northern Iowa had been able to run at all then they might have been able to win this game. David Johnson was UNI's leading rusher on Saturday with 18 yards.

Youngstown State 31, Pittsburgh 17

YSU WR's Andre Stubbs and Christian Bryan
(Photo: US Presswire)

The Penguins made a statement in this game that they are the real deal. I knew that Youngstown State would be good this year, but I was skeptical of their defense. This upset of Big East Pittsburgh erased any doubts I had against Youngstown State. Kurt Hess was solid and threw two touchdown passes, but the standout performance on offense was freshman Andre Stubbs. Stubbs had over 170 yards all-purpose and scored twice. Next up for Youngstown State is FCS non-scholarship Valparaiso.

South Dakota State 17, Kansas 31

This game played out like a typical FCS-FBS match-up. South Dakota State hung in their--trailing 10-7 at half-- but SDSU's defense wore out and Kansas took control. Austin Sumner threw 4 INTs, but three were in garbage time in the fourth quarter. This week SDSU will battle SE Louisiana; look for a close game but I expect SDSU to come back to South Dakota with a victory under their belt.

North Dakota State 52, Robert Morris 0

The nations best defense last year made a statement in this game that they're back. North Dakota State absolutely destroyed Robert Morris. The Colonials were held to 88 total yards of offense. This week the Bison travel to Colorado State. Colorado State is coming off of a fresh 22-17 win over rivals Colorado. We'll see how Colorado State responds at home this week. I still expect North Dakota State to win.

Sycamore RB, Shakir Bell (Photo: ISUAthletics)

Missouri State 9, Kansas State 51

I was following this game pretty closely. I saw the 9-6 halftime score and thought maybe Missouri State might be a different team this year--then the fourth quarter happened. Kansas State scored 35 fourth quarter points. The schedule doesn't get any easier for the Bears this week as they travel to Louisville.

Indiana State 17, Indiana 24

I was pretty confident that Indiana State would pull of the upset here. I figured Shakir Bell would run all over the Hoosier defense--and he did (192 yards and a TD). However, it wasn't enough to keep up with the Hoosiers. This week the Sycs will take out their frustration on Quincy; the starters should be out by halftime.