Blog Resurrection, Preseason Rankings, Player Watch lists, and more!

It's been a quiet summer for us here at the MVFF, but with kickoff of the 2013 season just a scant month ahead it's high time to get talking about what will likely shape up to be, once again, the most daunting conference in the Football Championship Subdivision. With North Dakota State returning as the back-to-back champion of both the nation and conference the table looks set to have the Bison continue their dynastic run through the slate, but make no mistake that plenty of challenges await as some very good teams appear to be shaping up here in the Midwest. The league boasts (in my opinion) six or seven teams that have a reasonable shot at being in the top half of the conference, and as all Valley fans will attest, any of the Valley members could steal a couple of games and surprise some folks. With that said, let's get right to my preseason rankings for the Valley - the numbers in parentheses indicate a team's 2012 record followed by their record in conference play.

Craig Bohl and the Bison are 37-7 over the past three seasons.
Photo credit: inforum.com

1. North Dakota State (14-1, 7-1) - No surprise here, as the Bison return 19 starters from a team that has won ten playoff games and two national championships in the last three years. Senior quarterback Brock Jensen returns behind center to continue as the rock on offense, and a few tools at wide receiver will only benefit a passing game that has largely been the only weakness of this squad for the past few years. This year's Bison defense should again cement itself as one of the top units in the country, and a number of players on that side of the ball have pro prospects to live up to. The Bison have a good early litmus test at Kansas State on August 31st, and a victory there would be an early herald of the continuing dominance the Bison are showing the FCS.

Kollmorgen returns as the reigning MVFC Newcomer of the Year
Photo credit: Getty Images

2. Northern Iowa (5-6, 4-4) - A rare losing season from Cedar Falls will be quickly rectified, in my opinion, as sophomore QB Sawyer Kollmorgen should continue to improve from what was a remarkable freshman campaign that nearly resulted in an early upset of ranked Wisconsin last season. The Panthers also return running back David Johnson, who's found himself on the 2013 Walter Payton watch list and should factor in as a potent weapon behind Kollmorgen. Tab October 5th as a slobberknocker, as the Panthers travel to Fargo to face the Bison in what should be the usual slugfest we expect between those two teams. Otherwise, the Panthers face some adversity in games at South Dakota State and Illinois State; can they endure?

Zach Zenner broke out last season with a 99-yard touchdown
run versus the Kansas Jayhawks. Photo credit: ESPN 99.1

3. South Dakota State (9-4, 6-2) - The Jacks are the sexy pick at second in the league, and have a very favorable home league schedule as NDSU, UNI, and both ISU's come to Brookings. The Jacks also return most key pieces from their playoff-earning campaign from last season. Those factors aside, the question for the Jacks is whether or not junior quarterback Austin Sumner can take the pressure off of last year's 2000-yard rusher Zach Zenner at running back. Zenner is on a nearly endless list of award watch lists for 2013, and rightfully so, but if Sumner can't improve on last year's 15-14 TD:INT ratio, then it will be all teams need to do to load the box and force the diminutive Zenner to pound out tough yards. The Jacks will be a good team, but it's up to Sumner to make them a great team in 2013.

Barnett's claim to fame is Iowa State's 2011 stunning upset of
then-second-ranked Oklahoma State. Credit: SI.com

4. Illinois State (9-4, 5-3) - The Redbirds don't go higher by virtue of losing do-everything quarterback Matt Brown last season, and although they are bringing in a few promising candidates to replace the position (including Iowa State transfer Jared Barnett, whom my partner-in-crime detailed in the blog post prior to this one), they still face a number of questions on offense that preclude any discussion of placing them higher than about here. The Redbirds defense fared surprisingly well last season, and though they lose beastly interior tackle Shelby Harris, that unit should be playing with a bit of pride this year that could lead ISU to shake up the conference standings and possibly repeat their playoff contention of last season.

You look Dale Lennon's mustache in the eye when you let
it down. Credit: SIUSalukis.com

5. Southern Illinois (6-5, 5-3) - Salukis head coach Dale Lennon once again found himself as the target for fans' ire following an unremarkable 6-5 campaign that seemed to feature as many defensive scores as offensive ones (which was to say, not many). Nevertheless, SIU finished with a winning record and returns a fair number of pieces, but has to travel to UNI, SDSU, and Indiana State in the coming season. Maybe that isn't so daunting, though, considering that the Salukis had a brilliant three-game stretch last year that included wins over ranked Illinois State and Youngstown State, both of which came by double-digits and were separated by a win over scrappy Northern Iowa. SIU found ways to win tough games, and sometimes in convincing fashion, and a feisty returning defense (the kind always fielded by 3-4 mastermind Bubba Schweigert) should have SIU trending upward for 2013.

Hess's numbers last year: 63.3% completion, 15 TDs, 7 INTs. Zero
career playoff games. Credit: YSUsports.com

6. Youngstown State (7-4, 4-4) - Kurt Hess entered the MVFC as a superstar freshman three years ago,
and in his final year at YSU he'll doubtless look to return to the that form and bring the Penguins back to conference relevance after two debacles last year that saw the then-ranked  'Guins get crushed by first NDSU (falling 48-7 after a 4-0 start and a top-five ranking) then SIU (losing at home 38-21 to the unranked Salukis). Youngstown State has a lot to live down this year, and while I think they have the ability to do better than sixth, they haven't demonstrated that they can be better year and, more importantly, that they can deliver in the big game. I want to believe, really.

Bell was a 2011 Payton finalist and averaged 5.5 yards per
carry last season. Credit: valley-football.org

7. Indiana State (7-4, 5-3) - Trent Miles and lowly Indiana State was one of the best feel-good stories in college football: 33 straight losses snapped when the hometown hero returns to coach his alma mater and brings the Sycamores to conference relevance the next few years. All ruined when Miles accepted a position to coach at FBS-bound Georgia State. Now the Sycs are feeling targeted as many are predicting a fall from glory back to the cellar days of lore, and outside of running back Shakir Bell, there isn't much they can do about it. Granted, Bell needs just over 700 yards and four touchdowns to take over the career leader spots in both categories at InSU, but that might be all the team can look forward to with the new coaching staff.

8. South Dakota (0-8, 1-10) - Joe Glenn's first season at South Dakota was a harsh wake-up call, and it goes to show that even a famed FCS coach can't make the necessary changes overnight. South Dakota should be a bit better, though their schedule does them no favors. There isn't much to take away from last season except that things can't get much worse (55-0 "home" loss to NDSU in Sioux Falls, anyone?), and really any movement almost by default has to be upward. This feels like more of a "dark horse" pick than UNI at second, that's for sure.

9. Missouri State (3-8, 3-5) - Missouri State lost some baffling games last year, and in a few were a mere score away from notching as many as three more wins in their docket last season. They even had a chance to defeat reigning champ NDSU, save for a timely last-second endzone interception by Bison DB Christian Dudzik. A 19-34 seven-year record in the Valley is all you need to look at to know why Bears' fans are clamoring for Allen to be fired despite his impressive resume. MSU does face just one FBS opponent this year, but as they face Southland foe Central Arkansas as well on their non-conference schedule, seeing more than four or five wins for the Bears is a tough call.

10. Western Illinois (3-8, 1-7) - WIU managed to score ten points just once in their final six games, and cracked 20 just three times (albeit to Butler, South Dakota, and something called Indianapolis). The team got flat-out run over in conference play, and doesn't seem to be trending any better, though with Missouri State, South Dakota and a DII team coming to Macomb, the opportunities for crowd-sating victories are there. Otherwise, it's going to be a long season if last year's finish is any indication.

2013 Offensive Player of the Year: Sawyer Kollmorgen, QB, Northern Iowa
2013 Defensive Player of the Year: Marcus Williams, DB, North Dakota State
2013 Coach of the Year: Mark Farley, Northern Iowa
2013 Newcomer of the Year: Jared Barnett, QB, Illinois State

Eager to hear your thoughts and takes on the upcoming season. The countdown is barely a month off!

Roth's Power Rankings: Week 10

1) North Dakota State
The Bison escaped thanks to a last-minute endzone interception against a surprisingly game Missouri State team. Right now the Bison offense is in full-fledged 2009 mode and the defense is going back to its old job of bailing the team out, but despite that NDSU is still the best team in the conference, especially with Indiana State losing this weekend. A huge Dakota Marker game looms this Saturday for at least a share of the conference title.

2) South Dakota State
Austin Sumner got back to his form last season as he threw against Southern Illinois 45 times and completed 26 of them without an interception. Meanwhile Zach Zenner had just 17 carries and the SIU defense held him to 49 yards. Is he running out of steam, or does the coaching staff recognize that teams are starting to key on the sophomore back and are going to the air as a result? Sumner needs to have a huge game if they want to win at NDSU on Saturday.

3) Illinois State 
Right now it looks like the Valley will get three into the playoffs and Illinois State is playing the part of the third team. With just one game left to play at home versus NDSU in the final week of the season, the Rebirds effectively have their ticket punched with eight wins. Good enough for a first-round bye? Probably not.

4) Indiana State
The loss to Illinois State was a back breaker, and playing D-II Quincy early in the season might not be enough to let the Sycamores sneak into the playoffs. They get a bye week to prepare for a monster game at Youngstown State to cap off the regular season, and a win there leaves them at seven D-I wins and on the bubble for the playoffs. They'll need some help from around the country (and will be rooting for Lehigh this weekend versus Colgate) if they want in to the field of 20.

5) Southern Illinois
It's almost too bad to see their loss to SDSU as they still had a snowball's chance of being considered for the playoffs at 6-4 if they win, with just cupcake WIU to play to end the season. SIU will want to get their first winning season in three years and should vent their frustrations on a hapless Western squad after their bye week.

6) Northern Iowa
The Panthers put a nice little thumping on WIU to remind folks that at one point they were considered among the favorites to win the conference. Panther fans have to be ready for this season to be over and freshman QB Kollmorgen will be ready to get working on the preface to his sophomore campaign which should hold plenty more promise. I'm interested to see what they do to South Dakota and Missouri State to finish their season. 

7) Youngstown State
From third in the nation to barely squeaking out a win over South Dakota, breaking a four-game losing streak. I've cited elsewhere that YSU's defense is not good enough to keep the 'Guins in the game when their offense isn't clicking, and so far that looks to be the case. Luckily they played a mostly-garbage USD team and were able to steal a 13-10 victory that won't earn them any respect. Playoffs are still a shadow of a chance and could set up a big finish when they play Indiana State to finish the season.

8) Missouri State
NDSU barely managed to snap a three-game win streak and needed a last-minute endzone pick to do it. MSU got feisty at the end of the year, and it's too bad their body of work leading up to this was so bad that I couldn't rank them higher than eighth.

9) South Dakota
Only ranked above Western Illinois by virtue of having scored points this weekend.

10) Western Illinois
40-0. Ouch.      

Roth's Power Rankings: Week 7

1. North Dakota State
Can anyone in the country stop the Bison after their 48-7 rampage over YSU? With the toughest part of their schedule behind them, NDSU is looking to coast through the rest of their Valley schedule.

2. Youngstown State
Still the second-best team in the conference despite the collapse on Saturday, though partially due to Illinois State laying an egg. South Dakota State is threatening their position. They need a big bounce-back from Kurt Hess to retain their hold on #2.

3. South Dakota State
Much-needed bye week for do-it-all back Zach Zenner to heal up. He cannot continue to average 26 carries a game in a Valley schedule and be expected to continue to carrying this team. 

4. Northern Iowa
Can the Panthers use the week off to refocus and salvage some pride from what is effectively a shot season? Great opportunity for freshman QB Kollmorgen to demonstrate some leadership and get his lumps out of the way as the team is playing for respect only from here on out.

5. Indiana State
The Sycamores had a surprisingly tough time fending off a feisty Missouri State team, but a fourth-quarter Bell touchdown provided the icing. Still not sold on their passing game and a trip to North Dakota State this weekend could get ugly.

6. Southern Illinois
The Salukis have suddenly found an identity on defense, and if their offense can do the same this could be a team that surprises some people. Shutting Illinois State out is a tall task for even NDSU's defense. 

7. Illinois State
No idea what to think of them going from arguably the second-best team in the conference to getting shut out at home in the span of three weeks. Starting with their struggle over South Dakota and ending at this past weekend, the Redbirds have slipped into a dangerous slump that could threaten what was once a likely playoff berth. Need to rally and perform better fast.

8. Western Illinois
Nice little win at South Dakota this weekend, but still don't have much else to look forward to. Even with a new QB, this offense can't effectively move the ball against the upper half of the Valley.

9. South Dakota
After playing Illinois State tough two weeks ago, Western Illinois at home should have been a win on a silver platter but the Coyotes couldn't deliver. This was one of the few games where they might have been nearly favored, and the schedule from here out doesn't look pretty.

10. Missouri State
I was mildly impressed with how the Bears hung with Indiana State, but they simply couldn't stop Shakir Bell in the second half.

Roth's Power Rankings: Week 5

1. North Dakota State
Road win over a UNI team fighting for its life, and by a greater margin than YSU got over the Panthers in Ohio. Hard to find a more balanced offense, let alone another that is complemented by arguably the best defense in the country.

2. Youngstown State
The 'Guins have a bye week to prepare for a nasty game at NDSU this weekend. Will that be enough to give YSU a second-straight win in the Fargodome?

3. Illinois State
The Redbirds survived a scare in South Dakota but are still looking like a likely candidate for a playoff berth. How well the defense can give Matt Brown and company some breathing room will be the determining factor as they enter the thick part of conference play.

4. Northern Iowa
UNI gets this spot purely because I think guys like Varmah Sonie will be playing angry the rest of the season, and still plenty of talent on the Panthers despite the 1-4 record. Effectively eliminated from playoff contention, will the Panthers phone it in or play for pride and try to upset the apple cart as they emerge from a brutal first two Valley games?

5. South Dakota State
The Jacks are in over the Sycamores by virtue of the head-to-head win, but the Jacks were underwhelming against Missouri State. They desperately need Austin Sumner to start producing if they expect to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.

6. Indiana State
Convincing win over Southern Illinois in Carbondale, where the Salukis just don't lose. Another performance like that and I'll be willing to overlook the Jacks' win over ISU.

7. South Dakota
Respectable performance against Illinois State, but the defense just couldn't keep up. If the offense can continue that kind of production the 'Yotes could surprise some people.

8. Southern Illinois
Tough home loss to Indiana State and Dale Lennon has to be on the ropes at this point as a 14-6 win over Missouri State two weeks ago just isn't enough to salvage some pride. Still face the meat of their conference schedule with games at Illinois State, Youngstown State and North Dakota State yet this season.

9. Western Illinois
Six total points scored in the last three weeks (@ Iowa St., @ Illinois St., BYE) and a two-week road trip to USD and SDSU coming up. The 'Necks could be 0-3 to start conference play.

10. Missouri State
At least their stadium renovation plans look promising.

Disclaimer: Roth's Power Rankings are at his own discretion and whim and are not governed by any formulae or mathematics. Pretty much all gut feeling.